{"id":3558,"date":"2025-12-29T12:38:25","date_gmt":"2025-12-29T12:38:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/?p=3558"},"modified":"2025-12-29T12:38:25","modified_gmt":"2025-12-29T12:38:25","slug":"economia-subterana-a-bulgariei-iese-la-lumina-odata-cu-trecerea-la-euro-bani-gasiti-in-casa-bunicului-si-credite-de-acum-50-de-ani-umplu-bancile","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/en\/economia-subterana-a-bulgariei-iese-la-lumina-odata-cu-trecerea-la-euro-bani-gasiti-in-casa-bunicului-si-credite-de-acum-50-de-ani-umplu-bancile\/","title":{"rendered":"Economia subteran\u0103 a Bulgariei iese la lumin\u0103 odat\u0103 cu trecerea la euro: bani \u201eg\u0103si\u021bi\u201d \u00een casa bunicului \u0219i \u201ecredite\u201d de acum 50 de ani umplu b\u0103ncile"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cu doar 3 zile \u00eenainte ca Bulgaria s\u0103 treac\u0103 la euro, sistemul bancar se confrunt\u0103 cu un aflux f\u0103r\u0103 precedent de bani, dezv\u0103luind probleme \u00een structura economiei si pun\u00e2nd sub semnul \u00eentreb\u0103rii preg\u0103tirea b\u0103ncilor pentru adoptarea euro,\u00a0scrie 24Chasa<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Din punct de vedere tehnic, b\u0103ncile \u0219i banca central\u0103 sunt preg\u0103tite pentru tranzi\u021bia la euro, dar marea \u00eentrebare este cum va absorbi economia \u201elegalizarea\u201d brusc\u0103 a unei p\u0103r\u021bi din moneda din umbr\u0103 \u0219i efectul asupra pre\u021burilor \u0219i creditului.<\/p>\n

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Jurnalistul Dan Popa trimite \u00een fiecare joi diminea\u021b\u0103 newsletterul \u201eEconoMix\u201d. Dac\u0103 te intereseaz\u0103 finan\u021bele personale \u0219i vrei s\u0103 prime\u0219ti recomand\u0103ri economice, te po\u021bi abona aici:<\/em><\/p>\n

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Depozite \u0219i bani \u201egri\u201d<\/h2>\n

Depozitele gospod\u0103riilor dep\u0103\u0219esc 100 de miliarde de leva, iar depozitele totale ale sectorului neguvernamental ating aproximativ 70% din PIB, cresc\u00e2nd puternic \u00een ajunul zonei euro.<\/p>\n

BNB \u0219i b\u0103ncile estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103, din cele aproximativ 30 de miliarde de leva aflate \u00een circula\u021bie, cel pu\u021bin 10 miliarde sunt din umbr\u0103, iar unele estim\u0103ri ajung p\u00e2n\u0103 la 20 de miliarde, o mare parte din ace\u0219ti bani fiind adu\u0219i cu explica\u021bii formale \u0219i adesea absurde privind originea.<\/p>\n

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Exist\u0103 un val de depuneri de numerar cu provenien\u021b\u0103 discutabil\u0103:\u00a0\u201e\u00eemprumuturi\u201d restituite dup\u0103 50 de ani<\/a>, pl\u0103\u021bi \u00eent\u00e2rziate cu 20 de ani, avansuri pentru contracte \u00eenc\u0103 nesemnate sau bani \u201eg\u0103si\u021bi\u201d \u00een casa bunicilor chiar \u00eenainte de v\u00e2nzare.<\/p>\n

Se observ\u0103 \u0219i un boom al cump\u0103r\u0103rii de ma\u0219ini noi, cu o cre\u0219tere de 27,4% \u00eentr-un an, ceea ce plaseaz\u0103 Bulgaria pe locul doi \u00een UE; exist\u0103 suspiciuni c\u0103 o parte dintre achizi\u021biile, mai ales de lux, sunt finan\u021bate cu astfel de fonduri.<\/p>\n

La depuneri \u00een numerar peste 10.000 leva trebuie completat\u0103 declara\u021bie de provenien\u021b\u0103, iar \u201efolclorul bancar\u201d se umple de astfel de explica\u021bii creative.\u200b<\/p>\n

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Incidentul cu banii ar\u0219i<\/h2>\n

\u00centr-un caz spectaculos, circa 30.000 leva au ars \u00eentr-o sucursal\u0103 bancar\u0103 din Gorna Oriahovitsa, dup\u0103 ce un b\u0103rbat \u00een v\u00e2rst\u0103 a depus 4.000 leva pres\u0103ra\u021bi cu naftalin\u0103 \u00eempotriva moliilor.\u200b<\/p>\n

Particulele de naftalin\u0103 au intrat \u00een sistemul de climatizare \u0219i, din cauza temperaturii, o parte din bancnotele aflate \u00een trezorerie s-au aprins; din 200.000 leva depozita\u021bi, 30.000 au fost distru\u0219i.<\/p>\n

\u200bCu c\u00e2teva zile \u00eenainte de introducerea euro la 1 ianuarie 2026, b\u0103ncile din Bulgaria sunt \u201e\u00eengropate\u201d \u00een leva, iar cererea de euro a crescut at\u00e2t de mult \u00eenc\u00e2t unele case de schimb au introdus limite la cump\u0103rare.<\/p>\n

Propriet\u0103\u021bi, ma\u0219ini \u0219i infla\u021bie<\/h2>\n

O parte din banii gri sunt \u201esp\u0103la\u021bi\u201d prin intermediul pie\u021bei imobiliare, unde pre\u021burile locuin\u021belor cresc \u00een medie cu peste 15% \u0219i cu p\u00e2n\u0103 la 20% \u00een ora\u0219ele mari.<\/p>\n

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\u200bDe asemenea, se observ\u0103 o cre\u0219tere puternic\u0103 a achizi\u021biilor de ma\u0219ini noi (peste 27%), inclusiv cele de lux, unele dintre tranzac\u021bii fiind legate de sectorul gri.<\/p>\n

Ace\u0219ti bani sporesc presiunea infla\u021bionist\u0103 deoarece sunt cheltui\u021bi intensiv \u00eenainte de introducerea monedei euro; infla\u021bia anual\u0103 este de peste 5%, iar b\u0103ncile stimuleaz\u0103 depunerea de bani pentru a reduce presiunea, inclusiv prin eliminarea comisioanelor pentru depunerea de leva.<\/p>\n

Boom-ul credit\u0103rii \u0219i riscurile<\/h2>\n

Volumul total al creditelor dep\u0103\u0219e\u0219te 120 de miliarde de leva, creditele acordate gospod\u0103riilor fiind de aproximativ 55 de miliarde, iar peste jum\u0103tate dintre acestea sunt ipoteci, cresc\u00e2nd cu aproape o treime \u00eentr-un an.<\/p>\n

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\u200bBNB avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 pe termen scurt acest lucru cre\u0219te profiturile b\u0103ncilor, dar pe termen lung creeaz\u0103 un risc pentru stabilitatea acestora, \u00een special pe fondul unui mediu geopolitic incert \u0219i al posibilelor \u0219ocuri la adresa exporturilor, consumului \u0219i investi\u021biilor.<\/p>\n

Acesta este motivul pentru care banca central\u0103 men\u021bine rezervele de capital anticiclice la 2% cel pu\u021bin p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een primul trimestru al anului 2027, ca m\u0103sur\u0103 de protec\u021bie \u00eempotriva pierderilor viitoare.<\/p>\n

Impactul monedei euro asupra pre\u021burilor<\/h2>\n

Articolul subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 cre\u0219terea pre\u021bului multor alimente \u0219i servicii nu se datoreaz\u0103 direct introducerii monedei euro, ci unor factori mai largi, inclusiv infla\u021bia global\u0103 \u0219i energia scump\u0103.<\/p>\n

Este dat exemplul Croa\u021biei: introducerea monedei euro a crescut infla\u021bia cu doar aproximativ 0,3-0,4 puncte, pre\u021burile pentru dou\u0103 treimi din bunuri r\u0103m\u00e2n\u00e2nd neschimbate, sc\u0103z\u00e2nd cu 25% \u0219i cresc\u00e2nd cu 10%.<\/p>\n

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Mai vizibil\u0103 este cre\u0219terea pre\u021burilor la serviciile f\u0103r\u0103 concuren\u021b\u0103 extern\u0103 puternic\u0103 (restaurante, cosmetice, saloane de coafur\u0103, servicii medicale), unde \u00eentreprinderile \u201erotunjesc\u201d pre\u021burile \u00een sus la schimbarea valutelor.<\/p>\n

Lec\u021bii din alte \u021b\u0103ri \u0219i concluzie<\/h2>\n

O analiz\u0103 a Slovaciei, Estoniei, Letoniei \u0219i Lituaniei arat\u0103 c\u0103 \u00eenainte \u0219i imediat dup\u0103 adoptarea monedei euro exist\u0103 adesea o cre\u0219tere a creditelor, investi\u021biilor, salariilor \u0219i propriet\u0103\u021bilor, ceea ce duce la o cre\u0219tere a pre\u021burilor, \u00een special pentru servicii \u0219i imobiliare, \u0219i apoi la stabilizare.<\/p>\n

\u200b\u00cen \u021b\u0103rile cu o pia\u021b\u0103 mic\u0103, concuren\u021b\u0103 slab\u0103 \u0219i servicii slab reglementate, cererea crescut\u0103 se transfer\u0103 u\u0219or \u00een infla\u021bie.<\/p>\n

\u200bPentru Bulgaria, \u00eentrebarea cheie, conform articolului, este ce se va \u00eent\u00e2mpla cu cele 10-20 de miliarde de leva de bani gri care \u00ee\u0219i caut\u0103 acum legitimitatea \u0219i cum va afecta acest lucru pre\u021burile, pia\u021ba imobiliar\u0103 \u0219i calitatea portofoliului de credite dup\u0103 1 ianuarie 2026.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Sursa https:\/\/hotnews.ro\/economia-subterana-a-bulgariei-iese-la-lumina-odata-cu-trecerea-la-euro-bani-gasiti-in-casa-bunicului-si-credite-de-acum-50-de-ani-umplu-bancile-2139512<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cu doar 3 zile \u00eenainte ca Bulgaria s\u0103 treac\u0103 la euro, sistemul bancar se confrunt\u0103 cu un aflux f\u0103r\u0103 precedent de bani, dezv\u0103luind probleme \u00een structura economiei si pun\u00e2nd sub semnul \u00eentreb\u0103rii preg\u0103tirea b\u0103ncilor pentru adoptarea euro,\u00a0scrie 24Chasa. Din punct de vedere tehnic, b\u0103ncile \u0219i banca central\u0103 sunt preg\u0103tite pentru tranzi\u021bia la euro, dar marea…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nEconomia subteran\u0103 a Bulgariei iese la lumin\u0103 odat\u0103 cu trecerea la euro: bani \u201eg\u0103si\u021bi\u201d \u00een casa bunicului \u0219i \u201ecredite\u201d de acum 50 de ani umplu b\u0103ncile - Carpathia Center Romania<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/en\/economia-subterana-a-bulgariei-iese-la-lumina-odata-cu-trecerea-la-euro-bani-gasiti-in-casa-bunicului-si-credite-de-acum-50-de-ani-umplu-bancile\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economia subteran\u0103 a Bulgariei iese la lumin\u0103 odat\u0103 cu trecerea la euro: bani \u201eg\u0103si\u021bi\u201d \u00een casa bunicului \u0219i \u201ecredite\u201d de acum 50 de ani umplu b\u0103ncile - Carpathia Center Romania\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Cu doar 3 zile \u00eenainte ca Bulgaria s\u0103 treac\u0103 la euro, sistemul bancar se confrunt\u0103 cu un aflux f\u0103r\u0103 precedent de bani, dezv\u0103luind probleme \u00een structura economiei si pun\u00e2nd sub semnul \u00eentreb\u0103rii preg\u0103tirea b\u0103ncilor pentru adoptarea euro,\u00a0scrie 24Chasa. 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