{"id":2878,"date":"2025-08-18T08:42:10","date_gmt":"2025-08-18T08:42:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/?p=2878"},"modified":"2025-08-18T08:42:10","modified_gmt":"2025-08-18T08:42:10","slug":"urmatoarele-sase-luni-sunt-foarte-importante-spune-bolojan-cat-va-dura-perioada-dificila-prin-care-trecem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/en\/urmatoarele-sase-luni-sunt-foarte-importante-spune-bolojan-cat-va-dura-perioada-dificila-prin-care-trecem\/","title":{"rendered":"Urm\u0103toarele \u015fase luni sunt foarte importante, spune Bolojan. C\u00e2t va dura \u201eperioada dificil\u0103\u201d prin care trecem"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Premierul Ilie Bolojan afirm\u0103 c\u0103 m\u0103surile de reducere a cheltuielilor bugetare \u201etrebuie luate \u00een cascad\u0103\u201d. Acesta estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 \u201eperioada dificil\u0103\u201d pentru Rom\u00e2nia, din punct de vedere financiar, o reprezint\u0103 anul acesta \u015fi prima jum\u0103tate a anului viitor, subliniind c\u0103, dup\u0103 aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103, Guvernul trebuie s\u0103 creeze condi\u0163ii pentru relansarea economic\u0103.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eUrm\u0103toarele \u015fase luni sunt foarte importante pentru c\u0103 aceste m\u0103suri trebuie luate \u00een cascad\u0103. Aici e un plan clar, \u015ftim ce avem de f\u0103cut \u015fi Rom\u00e2nia poate trece prin aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103 pentru c\u0103 e o \u0163ar\u0103 mare, o \u0163ar\u0103 puternic\u0103 \u015fi putem s\u0103 trecem peste acest lucru\u201d, a afirmat Ilie Bolojan \u00eentr-un interviu pentru Bloomberg, citat de news.ro<\/p>\n

\u015eeful Executivului estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 \u201eperioada dificil\u0103\u201d va dura p\u00e2n\u0103 la jum\u0103tatea anului viitor.<\/p>\n

\u201eCred c\u0103 e singura solu\u0163ie, pe de o parte, s\u0103 trecem peste acest an \u015fi jum\u0103tatea anului viitor, care e perioada dificil\u0103, \u015fi dup\u0103 aceea s\u0103 putem crea condi\u0163ii pentru relansarea economic\u0103, pentru c\u0103 partea practic de corec\u0163ii se va finaliza, foarte probabil, spre sf\u00e2r\u015fitul acestui an \u015fi \u00eenceputul anului viitor, urm\u00e2nd ca, dup\u0103 aceea, noi ce trebuie s\u0103 facem? S\u0103 men\u0163inem deciziile care \u00eenseamn\u0103 decizii s\u0103n\u0103toase, s\u0103 nu intr\u0103m din nou \u00eentr-o zon\u0103 de populism pe care am mai aplicat-o anii trecu\u0163i, s\u0103 ne control\u0103m cheltuielile, s\u0103 ne \u00eencas\u0103m veniturile, s\u0103 stabilim reguli corecte \u00een a\u015fa fel \u00eenc\u00e2t s\u0103 avem un comportament economic corect\u201d, a mai afirmat Ilie Bolojan.<\/p>\n

Reamintim c\u0103 economi\u0219tii ne avertizeaz\u0103 s\u0103 ne punem centurile de siguran\u021b\u0103, pentru c\u0103 urmeaz\u0103 o perioad\u0103 de infla\u021bie ridicat\u0103, combinat\u0103 cu o cre\u0219tere economic\u0103 anemic\u0103, ceea ce aduce riscul stagfla\u021biei.<\/p>\n

 \u201eSitua\u021bia este extrem de nefericit\u0103, pentru c\u0103 avem \u00een acela\u0219i timp o infla\u021bie (care probabil \u00een august va ajunge exprimat\u0103 \u00een dou\u0103 cifre) combinat\u0103 cu o recesiune (\u00een cel mai bun caz cu o stagnare)\u201d, spune unul dintre ei.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eCred c\u0103 probabilitatea de a avea o recesiune \u00een acest an este extrem de ridicat\u0103. Am fi foarte noroco\u0219i dac\u0103 am reu\u0219i s\u0103 o evit\u0103m\u201d, spune \u00eentr-o discu\u021bie cu HotNews.ro pre\u0219edintele Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Rom\u00e2nia, Adrian Codirla\u0219u. El se teme de stagfla\u021bie (o combina\u021bie \u00eentre o infla\u021bie ridicat\u0103 \u0219i o cre\u0219tere economic\u0103 sc\u0103zut\u0103 sau chiar \u00een contrac\u021bie).<\/p>\n

Ceea ce a ajutat s\u0103 nu \u00eenregistr\u0103m o sc\u0103dere a PIB \u00een trimestrul al doilea comparativ cu aceea\u0219i perioad\u0103 a anului anterior, adaug\u0103 Adrian Codirla\u0219u, a fost revizuirea \u00een jos, cu 0,5 puncte procentuale.<\/p>\n

\u201eDac\u0103 0,5 puncte procentuale reprezint\u0103 marja de eroare a PIB, practic, cu o cre\u0219tere de 0,3%, noi deja suntem \u00een marja de eroare (vs. 0). Deci, este posibil ca deja s\u0103 fim \u00een recesiune\u201d, spune economistul.<\/p>\n

\u201eF\u0103r\u0103 revizuirea PIB, am fi avut probabil o contrac\u021bie a economiei \u00een trimestrul al 2-lea. Mai important\u0103 este \u00eens\u0103 perspectiva pe acest an\u201d, spune \u00een dialogul cu HotNews.ro \u0219i Laurian Lungu, cofondator al Consilium Policy Advisors Group.<\/p>\n

C\u00e2t despre partea a doua a anului, Codirla\u0219u nu vede cum ar putea economia evolua mai bine. \u201ePe l\u00e2ng\u0103 efectul de baz\u0103, majorarea fiscalit\u0103\u021bii va conduce la o reducere a cererii de consum, care e componenta principal\u0103 a PIB. Situa\u021bia este extrem de nefericit\u0103, pentru c\u0103 avem \u00een acela\u0219i timp o infla\u021bie (care probabil \u00een august va ajunge exprimat\u0103 \u00een dou\u0103 cifre) combinat\u0103 cu o recesiune (\u00een cel mai bun caz cu o stagnare). Cred c\u0103 deja suntem \u00een stagfla\u021bie\u201d, explic\u0103 el.<\/p>\n

Ce a condus la aceast\u0103 situa\u021bie: politica fiscal\u0103 prociclic\u0103 \u0219i, pe alocuri, iresponsabil\u0103 din anii anteriori, spune economistul.<\/p>\n

\u201eDeficitul bugetar, care va fi nesustenabil cel pu\u021bin 2-3 ani, va genera infla\u021bie (emiterea de datorie este practic tip\u0103rire de bani), iar impulsul fiscal va fi negativ din cauza nevoii de ajustare fiscal\u0103. Cum ajusteaz\u0103 guvernele deficitele bugetare? Prin infla\u021bie, iar cele de cont curent (\u00een cazul Rom\u00e2niei acesta fiind generat tot de c\u0103tre deficitul bugetar) prin depreciere. Deci, s\u0103 ne a\u0219tept\u0103m pentru viitor la o infla\u021bie mai ridicat\u0103 \u0219i, de asemenea, la continuarea major\u0103rilor de taxe\u201d, conchide Adrian Codirla\u0219u<\/p>\n

Laurian Lungu: \u201eAt\u00e2t consumul, c\u00e2t \u0219i investi\u021biile, m\u0103 a\u0219tept s\u0103 decelereze\u201d<\/h2>\n

Contrac\u021bia economic\u0103 este aproape o certitudine, adaug\u0103 \u0219i analistul Laurian Lungu. El spune c\u0103 este necunoscut\u0103 doar magnitudinea acesteia.<\/p>\n

\u201eAl treilea trimestru va mai ar\u0103ta probabil \u00eenc\u0103 pu\u021bin\u0103 rezilien\u021b\u0103, \u00eens\u0103 m\u0103 a\u0219tept ca performan\u021ba economiei \u00een ultimul trimestru s\u0103 \u00eenregistreze o sc\u0103dere mai proeminent\u0103 relativ cu aceea\u0219i perioad\u0103 a anului trecut. At\u00e2t consumul, c\u00e2t \u0219i investi\u021biile, m\u0103 a\u0219tept s\u0103 decelereze\u201d, mai spune Lungu, pentru HotNews.<\/p>\n

Ce este stagfla\u021bia \u0219i de ce e periculoas\u0103<\/h2>\n

Stagfla\u021bia este una dintre cele mai complicate \u0219i periculoase situa\u021bii economice, deoarece combin\u0103 infla\u021bia (cre\u0219terea pre\u021burilor) cu stagnarea sau sc\u0103derea economic\u0103 (PIB sc\u0103zut, \u0219omaj ridicat).<\/p>\n

Dificultate \u00een combaterea prin politici economice: \u00cen mod normal, pentru a reduce infla\u021bia, guvernele sau b\u0103ncile centrale cresc dob\u00e2nzile sau reduc cheltuielile publice. Dar aceste m\u0103suri scad \u0219i mai mult activitatea economic\u0103, tocmai c\u00e2nd economia este deja \u00een recul. Dac\u0103, din contr\u0103, \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 stimuleze economia (prin cre\u0219teri de salarii, sc\u0103dere de taxe sau sc\u0103derea dob\u00e2nzilor), infla\u021bia va deveni \u0219i mai mare.<\/p>\n

Efectul asupra veniturilor reale: Cre\u0219terea pre\u021burilor diminueaz\u0103 valoarea real\u0103 a salariilor \u0219i economiilor oamenilor. Dac\u0103 salariile nu cresc m\u0103car \u00een acela\u0219i ritm cu pre\u021burile, puterea de cump\u0103rare scade.<\/p>\n

Risc de \u0219omaj \u00een cre\u0219tere: \u00cen stagnare sau recesiune, firmele nu mai angajeaz\u0103 sau chiar concediaz\u0103 oameni, deci \u0219omajul cre\u0219te exact c\u00e2nd costurile vie\u021bii sunt \u0219i ele \u00een cre\u0219tere.<\/p>\n

Erodarea economiilor: Banii pu\u0219i deoparte de oameni (\u00een conturi sau depozite bancare) \u00ee\u0219i pierd valoarea din cauza infla\u021biei. Dob\u00e2nzile bancare rar \u021bin pasul cu cre\u0219terea pre\u021burilor.<\/p>\n

Instabilitate \u0219i incertitudine: Investitorii devin tem\u0103tori, nu mai investesc sau consum\u0103, ceea ce prelunge\u0219te \u0219i ad\u00e2nce\u0219te problemele economice.<\/p>\n

Sursa articolului: https:\/\/hotnews.ro\/urmatoarele-sase-luni-sunt-foarte-importante-spune-bolojan-cat-va-dura-perioada-dificila-prin-care-trecem-2046733<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Premierul Ilie Bolojan afirm\u0103 c\u0103 m\u0103surile de reducere a cheltuielilor bugetare \u201etrebuie luate \u00een cascad\u0103\u201d. Acesta estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 \u201eperioada dificil\u0103\u201d pentru Rom\u00e2nia, din punct de vedere financiar, o reprezint\u0103 anul acesta \u015fi prima jum\u0103tate a anului viitor, subliniind c\u0103, dup\u0103 aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103, Guvernul trebuie s\u0103 creeze condi\u0163ii pentru relansarea economic\u0103. \u201eUrm\u0103toarele \u015fase luni sunt foarte…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2837,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nUrm\u0103toarele \u015fase luni sunt foarte importante, spune Bolojan. C\u00e2t va dura \u201eperioada dificil\u0103\u201d prin care trecem - Carpathia Center Romania<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/en\/urmatoarele-sase-luni-sunt-foarte-importante-spune-bolojan-cat-va-dura-perioada-dificila-prin-care-trecem\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Urm\u0103toarele \u015fase luni sunt foarte importante, spune Bolojan. C\u00e2t va dura \u201eperioada dificil\u0103\u201d prin care trecem - Carpathia Center Romania\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Premierul Ilie Bolojan afirm\u0103 c\u0103 m\u0103surile de reducere a cheltuielilor bugetare \u201etrebuie luate \u00een cascad\u0103\u201d. Acesta estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 \u201eperioada dificil\u0103\u201d pentru Rom\u00e2nia, din punct de vedere financiar, o reprezint\u0103 anul acesta \u015fi prima jum\u0103tate a anului viitor, subliniind c\u0103, dup\u0103 aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103, Guvernul trebuie s\u0103 creeze condi\u0163ii pentru relansarea economic\u0103. \u201eUrm\u0103toarele \u015fase luni sunt foarte...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/en\/urmatoarele-sase-luni-sunt-foarte-importante-spune-bolojan-cat-va-dura-perioada-dificila-prin-care-trecem\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Carpathia Center Romania\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/fdpscarpathia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-08-18T08:42:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Ilie-Bolojan.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1296\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"728\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"creativebitsolutions\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"creativebitsolutions\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/urmatoarele-sase-luni-sunt-foarte-importante-spune-bolojan-cat-va-dura-perioada-dificila-prin-care-trecem\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/urmatoarele-sase-luni-sunt-foarte-importante-spune-bolojan-cat-va-dura-perioada-dificila-prin-care-trecem\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"creativebitsolutions\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/#\/schema\/person\/03d9f58202fee8379268f34afa195006\"},\"headline\":\"Urm\u0103toarele \u015fase luni sunt foarte importante, spune Bolojan. 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