{"id":1658,"date":"2024-12-18T10:10:22","date_gmt":"2024-12-18T10:10:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/?p=1658"},"modified":"2024-12-18T10:10:22","modified_gmt":"2024-12-18T10:10:22","slug":"fitch-inrautateste-perspectiva-ratingului-romaniei-de-la-stabila-la-negativa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/en\/fitch-inrautateste-perspectiva-ratingului-romaniei-de-la-stabila-la-negativa\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch \u00eenr\u0103ut\u0103\u0163e\u015fte perspectiva ratingului Rom\u00e2niei de la stabil\u0103 la negativ\u0103"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Fitch Ratings a confirmat la \u201cBBB minus\u201d ratingul Rom\u00e2niei pe termen lung \u00een valut\u0103, dar a \u00eenr\u0103ut\u0103\u0163it perspectiva atribuit\u0103 de la stabil\u0103 la negativ\u0103, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 o nou\u0103 retrogradare este posibil\u0103, se arat\u0103 \u00eentr-un comunicat al agen\u0163iei de evaluare financiar\u0103.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Urm\u0103toarea revizuire programat\u0103 de Fitch pentru ratingul Rom\u00e2niei era \u00een februarie 2025, dar agen\u0163ia crede c\u0103 evolu\u0163iile din \u0163ar\u0103 justific\u0103 o astfel de deviere de la calendar.<\/p>\n

Revizuirea perspectivei reflect\u0103 incertitudinile politice, care afecteaz\u0103 perspectivele fiscale, un Parlament mai divizat, majorarea datoriei publice \u015fi deficitul bugetar ridicat, se arat\u0103 \u00een comunicat. Conform Fitch, incertitudinile politice au ajuns la un nivel ridicat \u015fi evaluarea agen\u0163iei este c\u0103 probabil ele vor avea un efect advers semnificativ asupra consolid\u0103rii fiscale.<\/p>\n

Alegerile parlamentare au avut ca rezultat un Parlament mai divizat, cu o cre\u015ftere a extremei drepte, a partidelor anti-UE, reflect\u00e2nd polarizarea sporit\u0103 a societ\u0103\u0163ii rom\u00e2ne\u015fti. O nou\u0103 coali\u0163ie de guvernare pro-european\u0103 de patru partide va fi probabil format\u0103 \u00eenainte de finalul lui 2024. Totu\u015fi, durabilitatea unei astfel de coali\u0163ii este nesigur\u0103, iar noile alegeri preziden\u0163iale, programate probabil cel mai devreme \u00een martie 2025, vor men\u0163ine incertitudinile politice ridicate, \u015fi probabil vor am\u00e2na implementarea m\u0103surilor de consolidare fiscal\u0103, se men\u0163ioneaz\u0103 \u00een documentul agen\u0163iei de evaluare financiar\u0103.<\/p>\n

Fitch estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 deficitul general guvernamental al Rom\u00e2niei va urca la 8,2% din PIB \u00een 2024, peste estimarea Fitch din august, de 7,2% din PIB, peste \u0163inta anterioar\u0103 a Guvernului (5% din PIB) precum \u015fi peste valoarea de 6,5% din PIB \u00een anul 2023 fiscal. Deteriorarea fiscal\u0103 mai mare dec\u00e2t se estima reflect\u0103 \u00een principal cre\u015fterea rapid\u0103 a cheltuielilor, inclusiv major\u0103rile salariale din sectorul public \u015fi ale pensiilor \u00eenainte de alegeri, nefinan\u0163ate. Impactul deplin al major\u0103rii pensiilor din septembrie 2024 se va ad\u0103uga anul viitor presiunilor fiscale, f\u0103c\u00e2nd viitoarea consolidare chiar \u015fi mai dificil\u0103, se arat\u0103 \u00een comunicat.<\/p>\n

De\u015fi Fitch aprecia c\u0103 anul viitor va \u00eencepe consolidarea fiscal\u0103, agen\u0163ia a revizuit estimarea privind deficitul general guvernamental al Rom\u00e2niei la 7,5% din PIB \u00een 2025 \u015fi 6,8% \u00een 2026, mai mult dec\u00e2t dublu fa\u0163\u0103 de media pentru \u0163\u0103rile cu rating \u201cBBB\u201d, de 3,2% din PIB \u00een 2025-2026. \u00cen opinia Fitch, consolidarea fiscal\u0103 se va confrunta probabil cu compromisuri dificile din cauza poten\u0163ialului impact advers a cre\u015fterii economice deja reduse \u015fi a riscului ca volatilitatea de pe pie\u0163e s\u0103 duc\u0103 la majorarea costurilor cu dob\u00e2nzile, sl\u0103bind \u015fi mai mult pozi\u0163ia fiscal\u0103.<\/p>\n

Deficitul bugetar mai ridicat va duce la o rapid\u0103 cre\u015ftere a datoriei publice ca procent din PIB pe termen mediu. Previziunile Fitch indic\u0103 o cre\u015ftere mai accentuat\u0103 a traiectoriei datoriei comparativ cu anii preceden\u0163i, deoarece deficitele primare r\u0103m\u00e2n ridicate \u015fi cre\u015fterea nominal\u0103 \u00eencetine\u015fte semnificativ. \u00cen scenariul de baz\u0103 al agen\u0163iei, datoria general\u0103 guvernamental\u0103 ca procent din PIB va cre\u015fte de la 49% \u00een 2023 la 62% \u00een 2026, peste media pentru \u0163\u0103rile cu rating \u201cBBB\u201d de 56%, \u015fi va continua s\u0103 creasc\u0103 semnificativ, la aproximativ 70%, p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2028.<\/p>\n

Deficitul de cont curent actual (CAD) ar urma s\u0103 ajung\u0103 la 8% din PIB \u00een 2024, de la 7,3% din PIB \u00een 2023, \u00een timp ce media pentru \u0163\u0103rile cu rating \u201cBBB\u201d este de doar 1% din PIB, f\u0103c\u00e2nd din Rom\u00e2nia un caz excep\u0163ional. Performan\u0163a slab\u0103 la export din 2024 subliniaz\u0103 provoc\u0103rile legate de competitivitatea extern\u0103 ale economiei Rom\u00e2niei. Datoria extern\u0103 net\u0103 va cre\u015fte de la 12% din PIB \u00een 2023 la 20% din PIB \u00een 2026, peste media pentru \u0163\u0103rile cu rating \u201cBBB\u201d de 3% din PIB.<\/p>\n

Una din ancorele cheie ale politicii economice a Rom\u00e2niei este conformarea cu cadrul UE, dar acum Guvernul are ca obiectiv ie\u015firea din procedura de deficit excesiv (EDP) doar \u00een 2031, prin aducerea deficitului sub 3% din PIB. Analiza Fitch indic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 a sl\u0103bit substan\u0163ial credibilitatea ancorei fiscale pe termen mediu, din cauza cheltuielilor nefinan\u0163ate \u015fi a derapajelor fiscale repetate. Fitch consider\u0103 c\u0103 incertitudinea politic\u0103 amplific\u0103 aceste riscuri.<\/p>\n

Economia a \u00eencetinit gradual \u00een 2024, iar \u00een trimestrul trei cre\u015fterea anual\u0103 a PIB-ului a fost de minus 0,3%, \u00een termeni ajusta\u0163i sezonier. Exporturile au fost \u00een mod special slabe \u00een 2024, \u00een timp ce a crescut consumul gospod\u0103riilor, pe fondul major\u0103rii veniturilor, alimentate de orientarea fiscal\u0103 relaxat\u0103. De\u015fi Rom\u00e2nia a avut o cre\u015ftere solid\u0103 \u00eenaintea pandemiei, media centrat\u0103 a cre\u015fterii PIB-ului este de doar 1,5% \u00een 2024, fa\u0163\u0103 de media pentru \u0163\u0103rile cu rating \u201cBBB\u201d de 3,3%. \u00cen acest context, Fitch se a\u015fteapt\u0103 la o cre\u015ftere a economiei \u00een 2025 \u015fi 2026 de 1,4% \u015fi, respectiv, de 2,2%.<\/p>\n

Printre factorii care, \u00een opinia Fitch, ar putea duce la retrogradarea ratingului, se afl\u0103 continuarea cre\u015fterii rapide a datoriei guvernamentale pe termen mediu, pe fondul e\u015fecului implement\u0103rii m\u0103surilor care sus\u0163in o consolidare fiscal\u0103 credibil\u0103 \u015fi sus\u0163inut\u0103, sau o cre\u015ftere economic\u0103 slab\u0103, \u015fi efecte negative la adresa stabilit\u0103\u0163ii macroeconomice, de pe urma \u015focurilor politice.<\/p>\n

Printre factorii, care \u00een opinia Fitch, ar putea duce la \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163irea ratingului, se afl\u0103 o consolidare fiscal\u0103 mai mare dec\u00e2t cea proiectat\u0103, care s\u0103 sprijine stabilizarea nivelului datoriei ca procent din PIB pe termen mediu, reducerea gradului de \u00eendatorare extern\u0103 \u015fi a riscurilor la adresa finan\u0163\u0103rii externe, \u00een urma \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163irii structurale a actualei situa\u0163ii a contului curent.<\/p>\n

Ratingul aferent datoriei guvernamentale a Rom\u00e2niei a fost reconfirmat la finele lunii august de c\u0103tre Fitch la BBB-\/F3 pentru datoria pe termen lung \u015fi scurt \u00een valut\u0103, precum \u015fi perspectiva stabil\u0103.<\/p>\n

Potrivit unui comunicat al Ministerul Finan\u0163elor, transmis pe 31 august, decizia reconfirm\u0103rii ratingului suveran \u015fi a men\u0163inerii perspectivei stabile este sus\u0163inut\u0103, \u00een opinia agen\u0163iei, de statutul de membru al Uniunii Europene \u015fi de intr\u0103rile de capital de la Uniunea European\u0103 care sus\u0163in convergen\u0163a real\u0103 a veniturilor, finan\u0163ele externe \u015fi stabilitatea macroeconomic\u0103 a \u0163\u0103rii, precum \u015fi de evolu\u0163ia pozitiv\u0103 a PIB-ului pe cap de locuitor \u015fi a indicatorilor de guvernan\u0163\u0103 \u015fi dezvoltare uman\u0103, care se situeaz\u0103 la niveluri superioare fa\u0163\u0103 de \u0163\u0103rile din aceea\u015fi categorie de rating (\u201cBBB\u201d). AGERPRES\/(AS \u2013 autor: Mihaela Dicu, editor: Mariana Nica, editor online: Irina Giurgiu)<\/p>\n

Sursa: https:\/\/www.agerpres.ro\/economic-intern\/2024\/12\/18\/fitch-inrautateste-perspectiva-ratingului-romaniei-de-la-stabila-la-negativa\u20131404811<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fitch Ratings a confirmat la \u201cBBB minus\u201d ratingul Rom\u00e2niei pe termen lung \u00een valut\u0103, dar a \u00eenr\u0103ut\u0103\u0163it perspectiva atribuit\u0103 de la stabil\u0103 la negativ\u0103, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 o nou\u0103 retrogradare este posibil\u0103, se arat\u0103 \u00eentr-un comunicat al agen\u0163iei de evaluare financiar\u0103. Urm\u0103toarea revizuire programat\u0103 de Fitch pentru ratingul Rom\u00e2niei era \u00een februarie 2025, dar…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1659,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nFitch \u00eenr\u0103ut\u0103\u0163e\u015fte perspectiva ratingului Rom\u00e2niei de la stabil\u0103 la negativ\u0103 - Carpathia Center Romania<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/carpathiacenter.ro\/en\/fitch-inrautateste-perspectiva-ratingului-romaniei-de-la-stabila-la-negativa\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fitch \u00eenr\u0103ut\u0103\u0163e\u015fte perspectiva ratingului Rom\u00e2niei de la stabil\u0103 la negativ\u0103 - Carpathia Center Romania\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Fitch Ratings a confirmat la \u201cBBB minus\u201d ratingul Rom\u00e2niei pe termen lung \u00een valut\u0103, dar a \u00eenr\u0103ut\u0103\u0163it perspectiva atribuit\u0103 de la stabil\u0103 la negativ\u0103, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 o nou\u0103 retrogradare este posibil\u0103, se arat\u0103 \u00eentr-un comunicat al agen\u0163iei de evaluare financiar\u0103. 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